Trump administration loses grip on bird flu, experts warn UK

**Lead**

Public health experts have issued a stark warning to the United Kingdom: the Trump administration is losing its grip on the avian influenza outbreak in the United States, and the consequences could soon be felt across the Atlantic. With containment measures faltering and surveillance systems underfunded, the risk of a highly pathogenic strain spilling over into wild bird populations and eventually reaching Europe has never been higher, according to epidemiologists and veterinary scientists consulted by FORTIS NEWS.

**Contexto**

The avian influenza outbreak, caused by the H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b virus, has been circulating in American poultry flocks and wild birds since early 2022. In the past twelve months, however, the situation has deteriorated markedly. The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported a sharp increase in detections among migratory waterfowl along the Pacific and Atlantic flyways, with the virus now confirmed in more than forty states. Despite these numbers, the Trump administration has slashed funding for the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) and reduced the frequency of wild bird surveillance, leaving significant gaps in the early warning system.

In the United Kingdom, the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) has maintained a robust surveillance programme, but officials privately acknowledge that the sheer scale of the US outbreak makes it impossible to fully insulate British farms and wild bird populations. The UK’s Chief Veterinary Officer has repeatedly stressed that the primary route of introduction is through migratory birds that breed in the Arctic and winter in North America. If the virus becomes entrenched in American wildfowl, the autumn migration could bring infected birds directly to British wetlands.

The situation is compounded by the Trump administration’s decision to withdraw from the World Health Organization’s Global Influenza Surveillance and Response System, a move that has reduced real-time data sharing between continents. Without timely access to genetic sequences and outbreak reports, UK scientists are effectively flying blind when it comes to tracking the evolution of the virus in North America.

**Analise**

Why does this matter for the United Kingdom? The answer lies in the nature of the virus itself. H5N1 has already demonstrated the ability to infect a wide range of mammals, including foxes, seals, and even dairy cattle in the United States. Each spillover event gives the virus an opportunity to adapt to mammalian hosts, bringing it one step closer to efficient human-to-human transmission. The UK’s own experience with H5N1 in 2021 and 2022 showed that even a well-prepared nation can be caught off guard when the virus arrives on its shores. Poultry farmers in Norfolk and Lincolnshire were forced to cull millions of birds, and movement restrictions caused significant economic disruption.

Experts warn that the current trajectory in the United States is reminiscent of the early days of the COVID-19 pandemic, when a lack of coordinated federal response allowed a localised outbreak to spiral into a global crisis. The difference this time is that avian influenza already has a higher case fatality rate in humans—approximately 50 per cent in confirmed cases—and there is no pre-existing immunity in the population. A pandemic strain emerging from the US would pose an existential threat to the UK’s National Health Service and its agricultural sector.

The UK government has stockpiled doses of a pre-pandemic H5N1 vaccine, but these are based on older strains and may not be effective against the currently circulating clade. The UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA) has activated its influenza pandemic preparedness plan, but officials concede that the window for effective intervention is narrowing with each passing month.

**Fontes**

This report is based on information from the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra), the World Organisation for Animal Health (WOAH), and the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). Additional context was drawn from peer-reviewed studies published in *Nature* and *Eurosurveillance*, as well as briefings from the Royal Society’s pandemic preparedness working group. No individuals were named in accordance with editorial policy.