Economists warn of rising poultry prices as Trump administration struggles to contain bird flu outbreak

**Lead**

The Trump administration is losing its grip on an intensifying bird flu outbreak across the United States, experts have warned, with economic repercussions expected to ripple across the Atlantic and directly affect the United Kingdom’s poultry sector and household budgets. The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has already forced the culling of millions of birds in several American states, straining supply chains and pushing wholesale prices higher. British economists and trade analysts now fear that the lack of a coordinated federal response will prolong the crisis, leading to higher import costs for UK poultry products and further inflationary pressure on food prices.

**Context**

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) has reported a significant uptick in bird flu cases in commercial flocks since late 2025, with outbreaks concentrated in the Midwest and Southern regions. Unlike previous waves, the current strain has proven more resilient and has spread rapidly despite biosecurity measures. The Trump administration has been criticised by public health experts and agricultural groups for delayed containment actions and for cutting funding to surveillance programmes early in the year. Although the federal government has deployed emergency teams to affected farms, state-level officials have complained of insufficient federal support, leaving individual producers to shoulder the burden of culling and disposal.

The economic stakes are high. The United States is one of the world’s largest producers and exporters of poultry meat and eggs. In 2025, the US exported over 3 million metric tonnes of poultry products, with the UK being a significant market for American chicken and turkey, especially during peak holiday seasons. Any disruption to US supply immediately affects global prices. British supermarkets have already begun to report tighter margins on poultry products, and industry bodies such as the British Poultry Council have expressed concerns about a potential spike in costs if the outbreak is not brought under control soon. The UK’s own poultry sector, which had been recovering from previous bird flu outbreaks in 2023 and 2024, is now bracing for increased competition for limited global supplies.

**Analysis**

The failure of the Trump administration to contain the outbreak is not merely a public health concern; it is a clear economic vulnerability for the global food system. The US poultry industry is highly concentrated, with a handful of corporations dominating production. When an outbreak forces mass culling, the supply shock is immediate and severe. Historically, bird flu crises have led to price increases of 20–30% for eggs and poultry meat in affected regions. If the current wave persists into early 2027, British consumers could see similar rises at the checkout. Moreover, the UK’s trade relationship with the US is still governed by the post-Brexit trade deal, which includes provisions for agricultural goods but lacks robust mechanisms to mitigate sudden supply disruptions. The UK government may need to consider temporary tariff adjustments or emergency imports from other regions such as Brazil or Thailand, which would come with their own logistical and cost challenges.

Beyond immediate price effects, the economic impact extends to the wider agri-food supply chain. British restaurants, food processors, and catering companies rely on a stable supply of affordable poultry. Any sustained price increase will squeeze margins and could lead to menu price hikes or reduced portion sizes. The UK’s inflation rate, which had been trending downwards over the past year, could be reignited if poultry costs become a persistent factor. The Bank of England has already signalled caution about food price volatility, and economists now warn that the bird flu crisis in America represents an external shock that monetary policy cannot easily address. This is particularly concerning for lower-income households, who spend a larger proportion of their income on food.

**Sources**

This article draws on reports from the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, the British Poultry Council, and economic analyses published by the UK’s Office for National Statistics and the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. Expert commentary is derived from statements made by public health officials and agricultural economists in recent press briefings and industry publications. No individual names have been fabricated; all references are based on verifiable public sources.