Por Renan Filho · 2026-09-27
The Alex Pocognoli era for Scotland’s national football team is still in its infancy, but the early evidence offers a mixed bag of tactical promise and enduring frustration. The Belgian manager, appointed after Steve Clarke’s departure following Euro 2024, has sought to modernise the side’s approach, yet the same fundamental problem that has plagued the Scots for years – an inability to convert chances into goals – continues to rear its head in the early matches of the 2026 Nations League campaign.
In Scotland’s opening two fixtures under Pocognoli – a 1-1 draw away to Ukraine and a 0-0 stalemate at home against the Republic of Ireland – the team displayed greater fluidity in possession and a higher press than under Clarke. According to official UEFA statistics, Scotland averaged 58% possession across both games, a marked increase from the 49% average in Clarke’s final six competitive matches. The passing accuracy rose to 84%, and the number of shots per game climbed from 9.5 to 14. However, the conversion rate remained pitiful: just one goal from 28 attempts. That solitary strike came from a deflected John McGinn shot in Kyiv, more a moment of fortune than a product of coherent build-up play.
The context of these matches is important. Ukraine, despite the ongoing war at home, remain a technically gifted side, while Ireland under Heimir Hallgrímsson have become organised and difficult to break down. Yet Scotland’s failure to score against a Republic of Ireland team that had conceded three goals in each of its previous two outings is alarming. The expected goals (xG) data from Opta tells the story: Scotland generated 2.3 xG against Ireland but failed to find the net, with Che Adams missing two presentable chances and substitute Lawrence Shankland heading narrowly wide from six yards out. It is a story of familiar profligacy.
From a liberal-conservative perspective, this situation illustrates a critical failure of accountability and selection. Under a free-market approach, competition should drive performance. Yet Pocognoli has persisted with a striker pool that has consistently underperformed at international level. Adams has scored only six goals in 35 appearances for Scotland; Shankland, prolific in the Scottish Premiership, has just four in 18 caps. Meanwhile, younger options like Ben Doak (on loan at Middlesbrough from Liverpool) and Tommy Conway (Bristol City) have been given limited minutes. The state, in the form of the Scottish FA, should not intervene to dictate selection, but the manager must be judged on results. If the market of available forwards is thin, the solution is to develop more domestic talent through competitive club structures – precisely the kind of organic, market-driven improvement that conservative thinking champions.
Pocognoli’s tactical adjustments are nonetheless worth commending. He has shifted from Clarke’s conservative 3-5-2 to a more dynamic 4-3-3, encouraging full-backs Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson to overlap regularly. The midfield trio of McGinn, Callum McGregor and Billy Gilmour has shown improved chemistry, with Gilmour’s passing range opening up spaces that were previously absent. Defensively, the team has conceded only once in two matches, and that goal came from a set-piece – a persistent weakness under Clarke that Pocognoli appears to have addressed through zonal marking adjustments. These are tangible signs of progress, but they count for little if the team cannot score.
The FORTIS analysis is clear: Scotland’s problem is not a lack of creativity or defensive solidity, but a clinical failure in front of goal that is both structural and psychological. The absence of a top-class striker is a market failure – the Scottish domestic league does not produce enough elite forwards because clubs prioritise foreign imports and short-termism over investing in youth academies. While the Scottish FA could incentivise homegrown player development through league regulations, true reform must come from clubs adopting a long-term view. That is the conservative way: voluntary, market-led improvement, not central planning.
Frequently Asked Questions:
Q: Has Pocognoli improved Scotland’s style of play? A: Yes. Possession, passing accuracy and shot volume have all increased. The team looks more assertive and organised in pressing. However, the end product remains poor.
Q: What is the main issue facing Scotland? A: A chronic inability to convert chances. With only one goal from 28 shots in two games, the striker position is a glaring weakness. No current forward has a reliable scoring record at international level.
Q: Are there any promising young strikers coming through? A: Ben Doak (20) and Tommy Conway (22) have potential but lack experience. Harvey Barnes (if he switches from England) is unlikely. The domestic league’s failure to develop consistent goalscorers is a systemic issue.
Q: Should the manager be sacked already? A: No. Two matches is insufficient to judge a new regime. However, if the goal drought continues beyond the next batch of Nations League fixtures in October, questions about squad selection and tactical approach will become pressing.
Q: How does this fit with a liberal-conservative editorial line? A: The core principle is truth over narrative. We do not sugarcoat Scotland’s problems. The solution lies in strengthening club-level competition and individual accountability, not government intervention in football affairs.