Por Renan Filho · 2026-09-23President Xi Jinping of China will land at Joint Base Andrews on Wednesday morning for what White House aides describe as a “make-or-break” summit on artificial intelligence. The talks, scheduled for Wednesday and Thursday at the White House and Camp David, come as the United States and China compete for dominance in the most transformative technology since the internet.
The backdrop is stark. In the past 18 months, the US Commerce Department has tightened export controls on advanced semiconductors and chip-making equipment, aiming to slow China’s progress in AI. Beijing has responded with its own restrictions on rare earth exports and a $140 billion state-led investment push to achieve self-sufficiency in AI hardware. According to a senior administration official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, Trump’s core demand will be a verifiable halt to Chinese intellectual property theft and a commitment to fair competition in AI research. “The president is prepared to walk away if China does not show genuine willingness to honor past agreements,” the official said.
Why does this matter? AI is no longer a niche academic field. It is the foundation for next-generation military systems, from autonomous drones to cyber warfare tools, and it underpins the global economy—from supply chain optimization to financial trading. A joint report by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) published last week estimated that the country that leads in AI by 2030 could capture an additional $3 trillion in economic output over the following decade. The stakes are existential for both superpowers.
FORTIS Analysis: From a liberal-conservative perspective, the United States must avoid two pitfalls. The first is excessive government intervention that stifles the very innovation that gives America its edge. The Biden-era CHIPS and Science Act, while well-intentioned, poured billions into subsidies that often favor politically connected firms over market-disciplined startups. The second is underestimating the scale of China’s state-capitalist model. Beijing does not play by free-market rules. It uses subsidies, forced technology transfers, and state-owned enterprises to achieve strategic goals. Trump’s instinct—to demand reciprocity and enforce trade agreements—is correct in principle. However, the administration must ensure that any new restrictions do not cripple US companies like Nvidia, AMD, and Intel, which rely on Chinese revenue to fund research and development. A pure decoupling without a viable domestic supply chain would harm American competitiveness.
Counterpoint: Some analysts argue that cooperation, not confrontation, is the only way to prevent a catastrophic AI arms race. The Future of Life Institute, a nonprofit focused on existential risk, has called for a joint US-China moratorium on autonomous weapons and a shared framework for AI safety testing. Proponents point to the Cold War example of arms control agreements that reduced nuclear risks. Yet FORTIS notes a critical difference: China’s government has not published a single unclassified report on the safety of its large language models, while US companies like OpenAI and Anthropic routinely release public evaluations. Transparency is a prerequisite for any meaningful cooperation, and Beijing has shown no interest in it. As former CIA Director Mike Pompeo noted in a recent essay, “You can’t verify what they don’t disclose.”
The summit agenda is expected to cover four main areas: export controls, dual-use AI applications in military systems, standards for AI-generated content (including deepfakes), and the possibility of a joint crisis communication channel. According to a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Xi will come with a proposal for a “code of conduct for AI governance” that emphasizes non-interference and respect for national sovereignty. The US side views this as a thinly veiled attempt to limit American regulatory reach abroad while allowing China to pursue its own repressive domestic AI surveillance system.
Behind closed doors, the personal chemistry between Trump and Xi will matter. They have met at least six times previously, and Trump has publicly praised Xi in the past. But the atmosphere has soured dramatically since the 2024 trade war escalation. The US has imposed tariffs of up to 35% on Chinese goods, and China has retaliated with similar measures. AI represents a new and more dangerous frontier. Both leaders know that the winner of this race may shape the global order for the rest of the century.