Por Renan Filho · 2026-10-28**Lead**
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appeared to defy initial exit poll projections on Wednesday as final vote tallies from Tuesday’s national election showed his right-wing bloc gaining ground. However, despite the late shift in his favor, the results indicate that Netanyahu still falls short of the 61-seat majority needed to form a stable government, leaving the country mired in an unprecedented fifth election cycle in under four years.
**Context**
Tuesday’s election was widely seen as a referendum on Netanyahu’s leadership, coming amid his ongoing corruption trial and a deeply fractured political landscape. Early exit polls released by Israel’s three major television channels immediately after polls closed projected a deadlock, with Netanyahu’s Likud party and its natural allies — including the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, as well as the far-right Religious Zionism alliance — falling short of a majority.
As the night wore on, however, the count shifted. By early Wednesday, with more than 85 percent of the votes counted, Likud had secured 31 seats, up from the 29 projected in the exit polls. Religious Zionism, led by Bezalel Smotrich and Itamar Ben-Gvir, surged to 14 seats, making it the third-largest party in the Knesset. Together, the right-religious bloc stood at 59 seats — two short of the 61 needed to govern.
On the other side, the centrist Yesh Atid party of current Prime Minister Yair Lapid held steady at 24 seats, while its broader anti-Netanyahu coalition — which includes the left-wing Labor, the centrist Blue and White, the Arab-majority Hadash-Ta’al, and the nationalist right-wing Yamina — appeared to command 56 seats. The remaining seats were held by the Arab Islamist Ra’am party (4 seats) and the left-wing Meretz (4 seats), both of which have historically been reluctant to sit in a Netanyahu-led government.
**Analysis**
Netanyahu’s late surge is a testament to his enduring political resilience. Despite being on trial for charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust, he has managed to rally his base with a campaign focused on security, economic stability, and a narrative of victimization by the legal system. The strong performance of Religious Zionism, particularly Ben-Gvir — a far-right figure with a history of anti-Arab rhetoric — signals a significant rightward shift in the Israeli electorate.
Yet the arithmetic remains stubbornly against him. The 59 seats held by his bloc are not enough, and the remaining parties have all ruled out joining a government under Netanyahu. Lapid, who became prime minister in July 2022 after Naftali Bennett stepped down, has already called on Netanyahu to accept the results and begin negotiations for a unity government. “The people have spoken, and they have not given a majority to anyone,” Lapid said in a televised address. “We must find a way to work together.”
Netanyahu, however, has shown no willingness to compromise. In a speech to his supporters early Wednesday, he declared victory, claiming that the “right-wing bloc has won a clear mandate.” He urged the remaining parties to “join a strong, stable, and national government.” But with no obvious path to 61 seats, the most likely outcome is a prolonged period of coalition talks, followed by yet another election — the sixth in less than four years.
The political paralysis has real consequences. Israel faces a rising cost of living, a housing crisis, and ongoing security threats from Iran and its proxies. The judicial system is also under strain, with Netanyahu’s trial expected to resume in the coming weeks. A prolonged caretaker government would be unable to pass a budget, make key appointments, or respond decisively to emergencies.
**Fontes**
- Israel Central Elections Committee (preliminary results as of October 28, 2026) - Israel Democracy Institute (analysis of coalition arithmetic) - Reuters, “Netanyahu’s bloc falls short of majority in Israeli election, exit polls show” (October 27, 2026) - The Times of Israel, “Final vote count shows Netanyahu bloc at 59 seats, Lapid bloc at 56” (October 28, 2026) - Associated Press, “Netanyahu claims victory but faces coalition deadlock” (October 28, 2026)