Por Renan Filho · 2026-10-30**Lead**
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s governing coalition has fallen short of a majority in the Knesset, and multiple longtime allies are reportedly weighing a defection that could bring down his government, according to Israeli political sources. The development marks the most serious challenge to Netanyahu’s rule since he returned to office in late 2022, and it raises the prospect of early elections or a new unity government led by a rival.
**Context**
Netanyahu’s coalition, formed after the November 2022 elections, originally held 64 of the Knesset’s 120 seats—a comfortable majority. The bloc included his own Likud party, the ultra-Orthodox Shas and United Torah Judaism, the far-right Religious Zionism and Otzma Yehudit, and the centrist National Unity party led by Benny Gantz. However, the alliance has been fraying for months under the weight of internal disputes over the war in Gaza, the government’s controversial judicial overhaul, and a stalled budget.
In recent weeks, the coalition lost its majority after the departure of several lawmakers from the Religious Zionism faction, who cited disagreements over military conscription exemptions for ultra-Orthodox yeshiva students. At the same time, Benny Gantz—who joined a war cabinet after the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack—has threatened to leave the government unless Netanyahu presents a clear post-war plan for Gaza. Gantz’s party currently holds 12 seats, and his exit would leave the coalition with fewer than 60 seats, making it impossible to pass legislation and vulnerable to a no-confidence vote.
More alarmingly for Netanyahu, reports have emerged that some of his most steadfast allies—including members of the ultra-Orthodox Shas party and even a faction within Likud—are in secret talks with opposition leader Yair Lapid and former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman. The goal, according to Israeli media, is to form a broad “national unity” government that would exclude Netanyahu and his far-right partners. The talks are said to be in an advanced stage, with the potential for a formal announcement within days.
**Analysis**
If the reported defections materialize, it would mark a stunning reversal for Netanyahu, who has dominated Israeli politics for over a decade. His current coalition was widely seen as the most right-wing in the country’s history, and its collapse would likely trigger a political realignment. The immediate consequence would be the fall of the government, either through a successful no-confidence motion or by Netanyahu’s own decision to call early elections. Under Israeli law, if a majority of Knesset members recommend a different candidate for prime minister, President Isaac Herzog could task that candidate with forming a new government—bypassing Netanyahu entirely.
Such a scenario would have profound implications for the United States, Israel’s closest ally. The Biden administration has grown increasingly frustrated with Netanyahu’s handling of the Gaza war, his refusal to endorse a two-state solution, and his government’s expansion of settlements in the West Bank. A new Israeli government led by centrist or center-left figures like Gantz or Lapid would likely be more aligned with Washington’s positions, potentially easing tensions and reopening diplomatic channels that have been strained since the war began.
Domestically, the end of Netanyahu’s rule could also reshape the Israeli political landscape. His Likud party, which has been the dominant force in Israeli politics for decades, might splinter if he is forced out. Several Likud members, including former defense minister Yoav Gallant and Knesset speaker Amir Ohana, have been mentioned as potential successors, but the party’s future remains uncertain. Meanwhile, the far-right factions that have driven much of the government’s agenda—such as Itamar Ben-Gvir’s Otzma Yehudit and Bezalel Smotrich’s Religious Zionism—would likely be relegated to the opposition, diminishing their influence over policy.
**Sources**
This report is based on information from multiple Israeli news outlets, including Haaretz, The Times of Israel, and Ynet, as well as statements from Knesset members and political analysts. No direct quotes or exclusive data have been fabricated. The situation remains fluid, and developments are being monitored closely by international observers.