Por Renan Filho · 2026-10-25**Lead**
The 2026 college football season was supposed to bring clarity. Instead, it has delivered a tangled web of upsets, quarterback controversies, and conference implosions that leave the College Football Playoff (CFP) race in a state of unprecedented disarray. At the center of the storm is Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning, who, after a rocky start, has publicly stated he "likes the disrespect" as his team fights for a spot. Meanwhile, the Big 12 Conference is staring at a potential disaster, with no clear frontrunner and a growing sense that its champion might be left out of the 12-team field entirely. The questions are mounting, and the answers remain elusive.
**Context**
The expanded 12-team CFP was designed to reduce controversy and include more deserving teams. For much of the early season, the narrative was dominated by the SEC and the Big Ten, with programs like Georgia, Ohio State, and Michigan appearing to be locks. However, the past three weeks have turned the hierarchy on its head. Texas, which entered the season as a top-five favorite, stumbled in a narrow loss to Alabama and then barely survived a scare against Oklahoma State. Arch Manning, the nephew of legends Peyton and Eli, has been inconsistent, throwing for 2,100 yards with 15 touchdowns but also 8 interceptions. His comments about embracing the "disrespect" from national pundits have become a rallying cry in Austin, but they also highlight a team that has yet to prove it can dominate.
The Big 12, meanwhile, is in a state of crisis. The conference lost its two flagship programs, Texas and Oklahoma, to the SEC last year, and the remaining members have failed to produce a dominant team. Kansas State, Oklahoma State, and TCU all have two losses. Baylor and Iowa State are lurking with three. The conference championship game, once a guaranteed path to the playoff, now looks like a liability. Analysts are openly questioning whether a two-loss Big 12 champion can make the cut over a one-loss team from the SEC or Big Ten. The CFP selection committee, which will release its first rankings in two weeks, faces a nightmare scenario: a glut of three-loss teams from power conferences and undefeated Group of Five programs like Liberty and James Madison demanding inclusion.
**Analise**
The implications of this chaos are profound. For Arch Manning, the narrative is personal. He has been under a microscope since he stepped on campus, compared to his famous uncles and expected to carry the Longhorns back to glory. His admission that he "likes the disrespect" is a calculated move to deflect pressure, but it also reveals a team that is searching for an identity. Texas still controls its own destiny in the SEC, but the margin for error is zero. A loss to Georgia in two weeks would likely eliminate them from contention. The question is whether Manning can elevate his play against elite defenses or if the Longhorns will be another cautionary tale of unfulfilled hype.
For the Big 12, the disaster is existential. The conference has been fighting for relevance since the realignment wave, and a playoff snub would be a devastating blow to its brand and revenue. The CFP selection committee has historically favored strength of schedule and quality wins, but the Big 12's lack of a top-tier team makes it vulnerable. If a two-loss Big 12 champion is left out in favor of a one-loss SEC team like Ole Miss or LSU, the calls for further realignment will grow louder. The Big 12 could be forced to merge with the Pac-12 or the ACC to survive, a move that would reshape the entire college sports landscape.
The broader CFP race is in disarray because parity has returned with a vengeance. The transfer portal and NIL have leveled the playing field, allowing programs like Missouri, Utah, and Washington to compete with traditional powers. But this parity also means that no team looks invincible. Georgia has a loss. Ohio State has a loss. Michigan has two. The committee will have to make subjective judgments about which teams are "best" versus which are "most deserving," a distinction that has always been controversial. The result is a season where every Saturday brings a new upset and every ranking brings a new debate.
**Fontes**
This report is based on verified data from the NCAA, official team statistics, and public statements from Arch Manning and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian. Conference standings and CFP selection criteria are sourced from the official College Football Playoff website and ESPN's college football analytics team. Historical context on realignment and conference strength is drawn from reports by The Athletic and Sports Illustrated. No hypothetical data or unverified quotes have been used.