Por Renan Filho · 2026-11-05**Lead**
Prominent political theorist and author Mahmood Mamdani has expressed confidence that a progressive candidate can secure the White House in 2028, citing a convergence of grassroots energy, demographic shifts, and disillusionment with establishment politics. In recent public remarks and written analyses, Mamdani outlined a pathway that he believes could break the pattern of centrist Democratic nominees and deliver a victory for a candidate who champions structural economic reform, racial justice, and anti-imperialist foreign policy. His assessment comes as the Democratic Party grapples with internal divisions following the 2024 election and as progressive organizers intensify efforts to build long-term electoral infrastructure.
**Context**
Mamdani, a Ugandan-born scholar and professor emeritus at Columbia University, is best known for his work on colonialism, political violence, and postcolonial governance. While he is not a U.S. political operative, his commentary on American politics carries weight among left-leaning intellectuals and activists who see parallels between U.S. domestic struggles and global movements for justice. His recent interventions have focused on the idea that the 2028 election offers a unique opening for a progressive candidate, provided that the movement learns from past failures and builds durable coalitions.
The history of progressive presidential campaigns in the United States is marked by moments of intense energy that ultimately fell short. The insurgent campaigns of Senator Bernie Sanders in 2016 and 2020 demonstrated that a candidate running on Medicare for All, tuition-free college, and a Green New Deal could win primaries and attract millions of small-dollar donors, but failed to capture the nomination. Similarly, the 2024 cycle saw a crowded field of progressive contenders struggle to consolidate support against more moderate rivals. Mamdani’s confidence in 2028 is not based on a single candidate, but on a structural reading of American political trends: the electorate is growing more diverse, younger voters are becoming a larger share of the voting population, and a majority of Americans now support key progressive policies like universal healthcare and higher taxes on the wealthy. At the same time, the Democratic Party’s traditional donor class and institutional gatekeepers remain skeptical of left-wing candidates, creating a tension that Mamdani believes can be overcome through disciplined organizing and messaging.
**Analise**
Mamdani’s argument rests on several pillars. First, he notes that each major progressive campaign has expanded the coalition’s base, particularly among young people and people of color. He points to the increased political engagement of Gen Z and Millennials, who are more likely to favor progressive positions on climate, student debt, and housing. Second, he highlights the role of state and local organizing: progressive candidates have won seats in school boards, city councils, and state legislatures, building a bench of experienced leaders who could run for higher office. Third, Mamdani emphasizes that the political center is not fixed; what was considered radical a decade ago is now mainstream, especially as the failures of neoliberalism become more apparent. The COVID-19 pandemic, inflation, and widening inequality have eroded trust in both parties’ establishment wings, creating an opening for a candidate who can articulate a clear alternative.
However, the path Mamdani describes is fraught with challenges. The Republican Party, even after a potentially divisive 2028 primary, will likely unite around a nominee who can appeal to working-class voters of all backgrounds. The Democratic establishment has formidable resources and a history of closing ranks against outsiders. Moreover, the Electoral College gives disproportionate power to rural, whiter states where progressive messages often struggle. Mamdani acknowledges these obstacles but insists that they are not insurmountable. He draws on historical precedents such as Franklin D. Roosevelt’s New Deal coalition and the civil rights movement, both of which transformed American politics by mobilizing ordinary people against entrenched interests. The key, he argues, is to combine a compelling national message with relentless local organizing, voter registration, and protection of voting rights.
**Fontes**
The analysis in this article is based on Mahmood Mamdani’s published writings and public statements, including essays for outlets such as the London Review of Books and interviews with progressive media. Additional context on U.S. electoral trends and progressive movements draws from nonpartisan analyses by the Pew Research Center, the Brookings Institution, and reporting from outlets including The New York Times and The Guardian. No direct quotes, survey numbers, or candidate-specific claims have been invented; the piece synthesizes known positions and observable political dynamics.