Por Renan Filho · 2026-09-23A recent survey conducted by the Siena College Research Institute shows Letitia James’ lead over Republican challenger Michael Sullivan has narrowed to just 8 percentage points among likely voters, down from 18 points three months ago. The poll, released Wednesday, indicates that 46% of respondents now favor James, while 38% back Sullivan, with 16% undecided. The shift is most pronounced in suburban counties outside New York City, where Sullivan has cut James’ margin in half. Sullivan, a former federal prosecutor and political newcomer, has never held elected office, but his campaign reports a surge in small-dollar donations and volunteer sign-ups following a series of debates where he highlighted James’ record on public safety and economic policy.
James, a Democrat first elected in 2018, has built a national profile through high-profile lawsuits against former President Donald Trump, the NRA, and major oil companies. Her office also pursued aggressive antitrust actions and consumer protection cases. However, critics argue that her focus on national political battles has come at the expense of local priorities. According to data from the New York State Division of Criminal Justice Services, violent crime in New York State rose 14% between 2019 and 2023, while clearance rates for homicides and burglaries have declined. Sullivan’s campaign has seized on these figures, accusing James of treating the office as a “springboard for progressive activism” while neglecting core law enforcement responsibilities.
Why this race matters beyond New York’s borders. The New York Attorney General’s office holds significant sway over state antitrust enforcement, consumer protection, and civil rights litigation. A loss for James would be a major setback for the national progressive movement, which has relied on state attorneys general to advance policy priorities blocked at the federal level. Conversely, a Sullivan victory would signal that even in deep-blue states, voters are willing to cross party lines when they perceive incumbents as out of touch with everyday concerns. The race is also attracting national money: James has received support from EMILY’s List and the Democratic Attorneys General Association, while Sullivan has drawn backing from the Republican Attorneys General Association and conservative donors like the Koch network.
FORTIS ANALYSIS: Letitia James’ shrinking cushion is a textbook case of a progressive incumbent being held accountable for policy outcomes rather than intentions. Her office has pursued an ambitious agenda of “social justice” litigation, but the tangible results for New Yorkers—higher costs, regulatory burdens, and rising crime—have eroded her support among moderate and independent voters. James spent over $500,000 in taxpayer funds on a lawsuit against Trump that many legal experts considered politically motivated, as noted by former federal Judge John Jones in a 2023 op-ed. Meanwhile, her office’s own data shows that violent crime arrests have actually decreased under her tenure, raising questions about enforcement priorities. Sullivan’s platform of restoring law and order, cutting state mandates that drive up housing costs, and opposing bail reform resonates with a broad coalition that includes suburban Republicans, fiscal conservatives, and even some working-class Democrats.
COUNTERPOINT: Supporters of James argue that her record on consumer protection—such as securing over $2 billion in relief for defrauded borrowers and homeowners—and her defense of reproductive rights and immigrant protections are precisely what New Yorkers elected her to do. They point out that crime rates in New York City have actually declined in 2024 and 2025, and that Sullivan’s focus on “law and order” is a tired Republican talking point that ignores root causes. Yet the polling trend is undeniable. According to campaign finance filings, James has raised $12 million to Sullivan’s $4 million, but her burn rate is significantly higher due to expensive television ads. Sullivan’s campaign, by contrast, has focused on digital outreach and in-person events, claiming to have knocked on 150,000 doors as of last week. In a low-turnout midterm election, enthusiasm gap can be decisive, and early signs suggest independent voters are more energized by the challenger.