Por Renan Filho · 2026-10-01**Lead**
AUSTIN, Texas – A fresh Fox News poll released Wednesday indicates that the race for Texas’s open U.S. Senate seat has tightened into a single-digit contest, with Democratic state Representative James Talarico and Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton essentially tied among likely voters. The survey, conducted in mid-September, shows Paxton at 47 percent and Talarico at 46 percent, with a margin of error of plus or minus three percentage points – well within the range of a statistical dead heat. The poll also captured a small sliver of undecided voters, roughly 5 percent, who could swing the outcome in what is shaping up to be one of the most closely watched Senate battles in the country.
**Contexto**
The seat is being vacated by longtime Republican Senator John Cornyn, who announced in early 2026 that he would not seek reelection, citing a desire to return to private life after nearly a quarter-century in Washington. Cornyn’s departure immediately set off a scramble in both parties. For Republicans, Paxton emerged as the clear frontrunner after securing an early endorsement from former President Donald Trump and winning the March primary by a wide margin. Paxton has served as Texas Attorney General since 2015, leading high-profile lawsuits against the Biden and Harris administrations on immigration, voting rights, and environmental regulations. He was acquitted in a 2023 impeachment trial in the Texas Senate over allegations of bribery and abuse of office, charges he has consistently denied as politically motivated.
On the Democratic side, Talarico – a 37-year-old former educator and pastor from Round Rock – surprised many by easily defeating a more established candidate, former U.S. Representative Beto O’Rourke, in the primary runoff. Talarico has positioned himself as a moderate pragmatist who can appeal to suburban swing voters and even some disaffected Republicans. His campaign has focused heavily on public education funding, healthcare access, and protecting Social Security and Medicare, while also drawing sharp contrasts with Paxton on abortion rights and ethics in government. Talarico’s relatively low national profile, however, remains a challenge as he tries to match Paxton’s name recognition and fundraising machine.
Texas GOP strategists have expressed cautious confidence that Paxton’s statewide campaign infrastructure and the state’s conservative lean will carry him to victory, but private polling from both parties has reportedly shown a closer race than initially expected. The Fox News poll represents a shift from earlier surveys in June and July, which gave Paxton a lead of between five and seven points. The tightening coincides with a massive advertising blitz from outside groups: pro-Paxton super PACs have launched ads attacking Talarico as “too liberal for Texas,” while Democratic-aligned groups have hammered Paxton over his legal troubles and a recent federal investigation into alleged campaign finance violations, which Paxton has called baseless.
**Analise**
The significance of this Fox News poll cannot be overstated. Texas has not elected a Democrat to statewide office since 1994, and a Talarico victory would represent a seismic shift in the political landscape, potentially signaling a realignment driven by demographic changes in the booming suburbs of Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The poll found that Talarico is performing particularly well among suburban women and Latino voters under 40 – two key groups that have drifted away from the GOP in recent cycles. However, Paxton continues to dominate among rural and deep-red constituencies, as well as with older voters who reliably turn out in midterm and presidential cycles.
Yet the race remains fundamentally about Paxton’s polarizing record. The attorney general’s approval rating in the poll sits at 48 percent favorable, 47 percent unfavorable – a dangerously narrow margin for an incumbent running in a state where Republicans enjoy a registration advantage of roughly five percentage points. Talarico’s favorability, by contrast, stands at 44 percent favorable, 34 percent unfavorable, meaning he remains largely undefined for many voters. The next four weeks will likely determine whether Talarico can introduce himself to enough rural voters to erode Paxton’s base, or whether Paxton can successfully consolidate the Republican coalition by painting his opponent as a San Antonio liberal out of step with Texas values.
National implications are also at play. Control of the U.S. Senate currently tilts 52-48 in favor of Republicans, and a Democratic pickup in Texas would dramatically alter the math for 2027. Both parties have already poured tens of millions of dollars into the state, and a competitive Lone Star race could force the GOP to divert resources from other battlegrounds like Ohio, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania. The Fox News poll suggests that conservative anxiety about retaining this seat is well-founded, and that the final outcome may hinge on turnout models that are notoriously difficult to predict in a non-presidential election year.
**Fontes**
A informação contida nesta notícia baseia-se na pesquisa divulgada pela Fox News em 1º de outubro de 2026 (Fox News Poll: Texas Senate race between Talarico and Paxton), no relatório de resultados primários do Texas Secretary of State para 2026, em comunicados oficiais das campanhas de James Talarico e Ken Paxton, e em informações históricas arquivadas do Congresso dos EUA sobre o mandato do senador John Cornyn.