Por Renan Filho · 2026-10-26**Lead**
Former Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is positioning himself as a decisive wildcard in the country's upcoming election, a contest widely seen as a referendum on the future of the Middle East. With polling suggesting a deeply divided electorate, Netanyahu's return to the political forefront has reignited debates over security, judicial reform, and Israel's relationship with the United States. The election, scheduled for November 2026, comes amid heightened tensions with Iran and ongoing normalization talks with Saudi Arabia.
**Context**
Netanyahu, who served as prime minister for a record 15 years before being ousted in 2021, has been fighting legal battles on multiple fronts, including corruption charges that remain unresolved. Despite these challenges, his Likud party has consolidated support among right-wing and religious voters, capitalizing on security concerns and a perception of instability under the current coalition government led by Prime Minister Yair Lapid. The election was triggered after the coalition government collapsed over disagreements on military conscription for ultra-Orthodox Jews and budget disputes.
The political landscape has shifted dramatically since Netanyahu's departure. The current government, a diverse coalition of left-wing, centrist, and Arab parties, managed to pass a budget and maintain stability for nearly two years, but internal fractures proved insurmountable. Meanwhile, Netanyahu has leveraged his experience in international diplomacy, highlighting his role in the Abraham Accords and his opposition to the Iran nuclear deal. His campaign rhetoric has focused on restoring a “strong, unified leadership” capable of navigating regional threats.
A wildcard factor is the emergence of new political blocs, including a centrist party led by former Defense Minister Benny Gantz and a right-wing alliance that includes ultra-nationalist figures. The fragmentation of the vote could force Netanyahu into coalition negotiations with parties that have previously refused to sit with him due to his legal troubles. Additionally, the Arab-majority parties, which have gained influence in recent elections, could play a kingmaker role, though they have historically opposed Netanyahu's policies.
**Analise**
The stakes of this election extend well beyond Israel's borders. A victory for Netanyahu would likely embolden hardline policies toward the Palestinians, expand settlements in the West Bank, and intensify confrontation with Iran. Conversely, a Lapid-led coalition would likely continue efforts to de-escalate tensions with Gaza and pursue a diplomatic track with Tehran, while maintaining a cautious approach to the Palestinian issue. For the United States, the outcome will directly influence bilateral relations, as Netanyahu has a contentious history with the Biden administration, particularly over the Iran nuclear deal and settlement expansion.
The “wildcard” nature of Netanyahu’s candidacy lies in his unpredictability. While his political survival has often defied expectations, his legal vulnerabilities could limit his ability to form a stable government. Israeli analysts have noted that Netanyahu's path to a majority relies on support from far-right parties, which may demand controversial policies that could alienate international allies, including the US and European nations. At the same time, a weak coalition could trigger another election within months, prolonging political instability.
For the Middle East, the election's outcome will affect the ongoing realignment of regional powers. Saudi Arabia has signaled interest in normalization with Israel, but progress depends on credible steps toward a two-state solution—a condition Netanyahu has rejected. Should he return to power, the momentum for normalization may stall, benefiting Iran. In contrast, a Lapid victory could advance talks, though any deal would face opposition from hardliners within Israel and the region.
**Fontes**
This article is based on reporting from The Times of Israel, Haaretz, Al-Monitor, the Associated Press, and official statements from the Israeli Central Elections Committee. Analysis incorporates perspectives from Israeli political analysts and regional experts consulted by these outlets. No specific polling data or direct quotes from candidates are included, as per editorial policy.