Por Renan Filho · 2026-09-23The Boston Globe published a striking op-ed that challenges the dominant narrative surrounding violence against transgender people. Using official FBI data, the piece argues that the number of reported hate crimes targeting transgender individuals has been declining in recent years, not rising as many activists and media outlets have repeatedly claimed.
The op-ed points to the FBI’s annual Hate Crime Statistics report, which shows a consistent downward trend in anti-transgender hate crimes since a peak in 2020. According to the most recent data available, the number of such incidents fell by approximately 15% between 2021 and 2023. The author notes that this decline occurred even as overall hate crime reporting increased, suggesting that the anti-transgender category specifically is not experiencing the surge often portrayed.
Why does this matter? Because public policy and public perception are heavily influenced by the claim that transgender people face an unprecedented wave of violence. The op-ed argues that activists have used this narrative to demand extraordinary measures, such as legal exemptions, funding for gender-related programs, and the removal of law enforcement discretion in hate crime investigations. If the data shows the opposite trend, then the policy response may be based on a false premise.
The op-ed also addresses the common activist rebuttal that hate crime data is underreported. It concedes that underreporting is a problem across all hate crime categories, but emphasizes that the trend—not just the raw number—is what matters. Even accounting for underreporting, if the number of incidents is going down, the claim of a worsening crisis is unsupported by evidence. The author writes that activists often cite anecdotes and victim surveys that are not comparable to official crime statistics, creating a misleading picture.
From a liberal-conservative perspective, this op-ed is a welcome dose of factual rigor. The state has a tendency to expand its reach based on manufactured crises, and the transgender violence narrative is a textbook example. When data contradicts the preferred political story, the response is often to attack the data or the messenger rather than revise the narrative. The op-ed does not downplay the reality of violence against transgender individuals—it simply insists that the data be taken seriously.
The op-ed also notes that the decline in anti-transgender hate crimes coincides with broader societal shifts, including increased acceptance of transgender identities in many parts of the country. It cautions against confusing correlation with causation, but suggests that the data should give pause to those who claim that bigotry is worsening. The author calls on both sides to base their arguments on verified facts rather than emotional appeals.
Counterpoint: Some civil rights groups have dismissed the FBI data as incomplete, pointing to voluntary reporting by police departments and the fact that many jurisdictions do not submit data at all. However, the op-ed counters that the FBI's system has improved in recent years, with more agencies reporting than ever before. If the data were biased, one would expected an increase in reported incidents as reporting improves, not a decrease. The burden of proof now falls on those who claim a crisis to provide alternative data that shows an upward trend.
The op-ed concludes by urging policymakers to rely on the best available evidence when crafting laws and allocating resources. It warns that inflating the problem for political gain erodes public trust and ultimately harms the very communities activists claim to protect. That is a message that should resonates across the ideological spectrum.